Publication

Repurposing climate reconstructions for drought prediction in Southeast Asia


Publication Date : 2011-01-26
Author : Bell, A. R.Cook, B. I.Anchukaitis, K. J.Buckley, B. M.Cook, E. R.
Countries :
Disaster Management Theme :
Disaster Type : Drought
Document Type : Research Paper
Languange : en
Link : https://search.proquest.com/openview/5cd1da99d019c0a877127ab98e129db8/1?pq-origsite=gscholar&cbl=36297

Abstact :

Climate information may help smallholder farmers in Southeast Asia take informed risks and reduce their climate vulnerability. Model-based seasonal forecasts are limited in the skill they offer with longer lead times, and in theiraccessibilitytofarmersinremoteregions.Climatereconstructionsderived from tree rings can complement model-based forecasts, providing probabilistic estimates of future climate at an annual resolution. This study demonstrates the skill of PDSI reconstructions derived from the Monsoon Asia Drought Atlas (MADA) to forecast a climate signal several years into the future, and illustrates the advantage of such information vis-à-vis the simple strategy of assuming climate to persist from year to year. This work shows the potential forsuchclimatereconstructionstoimproveinter-annualdecisionsonSoutheast Asian farms, and highlights the social research necessary to transmute this potential into a valuable climate decision aid.