Mapping of bb-Value Anomalies Along the Strike-Slip Fault System on the Thailand–Myanmar Border: Implications for Upcoming Earthquakes

Publication Date : 2016-05-06
Author : Pailoplee, S.
Countries : Myanmar,Thailand
Disaster Management Theme :
Disaster Type : Tsunami
Document Type : Research Paper
Languange : en
Link :

Abstact :

In order to determine the prospective areas of the forthcoming earthquake sources, the bb-values of the frequency-magnitude earthquake distributions were analyzed spatially and mapped along the strike-slip fault system at the Thailand–Myanmar border. In order to constrain the relationship between the variation of bb and the following hazardous earthquake, the completeness of earthquake catalogue was manipulated into two datasets for (i) 1980–2000 and (ii) 1980–2005 and the bb-values mapped. Utilizing the suitable assumption of 30 fixed earthquake events, the following Mw=5.0Mw=5.0 earthquakes illustrate a significant relation between their epicenter and the areas showing relatively low bb-values. By utilizing the most recent earthquake data (1980–2015), five areas exhibiting low bb-values (implying prospective earthquake sources) can be identified along the strike-slip fault system. Compared with earthquake activities evaluated previously along the strike-slip fault system, the data reveal that these five areas may potentially generate earthquakes up to 7.0MwMw within the coming 50 years; the recurrence of the MwMw-5.0 earthquake is about 10 years and the probabilities of the MwMw-5.0 earthquake are about 40–95%, respectively. Since these prospective hazardous seismic zones are located close to cities, population centers and hydropower dams, an effective mitigation plan should be developed.