Philippines, Flooding and Landslides in Region V, VI, VIII, IX, XI, XII, and CARAGA (Effects of Low Pressure Area - INVEST 99W)

Situation Overview
13 February 2023
-11:00 AM: Trough of Low Pressure Area (LPA) outside the PAR was forecasted to bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Southern Leyte, CARAGA, Northern Mindanao, Zamboanga Peninsula, and Lanao del Sur.

14 February 2023
-11:00AM: The Trough of the LPA outside the PAR was forecasted to bring moderate to heavy rains over Zamboanga Peninsula, SOCCSKARGEN, and Davao Region. Meanwhile, light to moderate with at times heavy rains are expected over Visayas and the rest of Mindanao.

15 February 2023
-11:00 AM: The LPA was estimated at 925 km East of Southern Mindanao (6.3°N, 134.0°E). This weather system is likely to develop into a Tropical Depression.

16 February 2023
-11:00 AM: The LPA was estimated at 1,050 km East of Southeastern Mindanao (5.5°N, 135.0°E). The LPA is forecasted to move generally west northwestward towards the eastern portion of Visayas or Mindanao. The probability of this weather disturbance to develop into a Tropical Depression remains less likely.

17 February 2023
-11:00 AM: The Trough of the LPA outside the PAR will bring moderate to heavy rains over Eastern Visayas, CARAGA, and Northern Mindanao. Meanwhile, light to moderate with at times heavy rains are expected over the rest of Visayas and Mindanao.
-11:00 PM: The LPA was estimated at 315 Km East of Davao City (7.2°N, 128.5°E). The LPA is forecasted to move generally west northwestward towards the eastern portion of Visayas or Mindanao. The probability of this weather disturbance to develop into a Tropical Depression remains less likely.

18 February 2023
-11:00 PM: The LPA was estimated at 160 km North of Hinatuan, Surigao del Sur or 120 km East of Surigao City, Surigao del Norte (9.8°N, 126.6°E). The LPA is forecast to move generally west northwestward towards the eastern portion of Visayas or Mindanao. The probability of this weather disturbance to develop into a tropical depression remains less likely.

19 February 2023
-11:00 AM: The LPA was estimated based on all available data in the vicinity of San Vicente, Northern Samar or 40 km east of Masbate City, Masbate (12.4°n, 124.0°e). The probability of this weather disturbance remains less likely to develop into a tropical depression within 24 hours.

20 February 2023
-10:00 AM, the LPA was estimated at 220 km East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora (17.1°N, 124.0°E). It is forecasted that the combined effects of LPA and shear line will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over Batanes, Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and Isabela in the next 24 hours.
-10:00 PM, the LPA was estimated at 260 km East Northeast of Casiguran, Aurora or 305 km East Southeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan (16.8°N, 124.5°E). Based on forecast, it will bring light to moderate with at times heavy rains over mainland Cagayan and Isabela in the next 24 hours.

21 February 2023
-10:00 AM, the LPA was estimated at 385 km East Northeast of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan, or 390 km East of Aparri, Cagayan (18.4°N, 125.3°E). This weather system will no longer be affecting the Eastern section of Luzon as it continues to move generally Northeastward. However, due to the effects of the Northeast Monsoon, cloudy skies with rains will still be experienced over Cagayan Valley, Aurora, and Quezon.