ASEAN Disaster Risk Sustainable Resilience: Incorporating Sustainable Development Goals into ASEAN Riskscape

Read

ASEAN Disaster Risk Sustainable Resilience: Incorporating Sustainable Development Goals into ASEAN Riskscape

DOI: https://doi.org/10.62508/aha.armor.v4-2024.02 

Authors: Sadhu Janottama, Joseph Green, Lawrence Anthony Dimailig, Erin Hughey, Mohammad Fadli, and Jasmine Alviar

Abstract

Indonesia presented concepts of sustainable resilience to increase resilience in the face of disaster risks at the 7 Global Platform for Disaster Risk Reduction 2023. This presentation was followed by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) Leaders Declaration on Sustainable Resilience (ASEAN, 2023), which aims to promote sustainable resilience as an enabling framework to enhance collaboration in strengthening climate and disaster resilience for sustainable development. This article assesses the latest disaster risk of the ASEAN region and incorporates the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) as components to build resilience. This assessment seeks to understand the impact of sustainable development efforts on the ASEAN riskscape. This year, the ASEAN Risk Index for Situational Knowledge (ASEAN RISK) shows that Myanmar, the Philippines, and Indonesia are the ASEAN Member States (AMS) most at risk of disasters. Compared to the 1 edition of the st ASEAN Risk Monitor and Disaster Management Review (ARMOR), there is generally decreased resilience in the ASEAN region. However, compared to the 3 edition of rd ARMOR, there is a general improvement in the resilience of the ASEAN region. By incorporating SDGs into the ASEAN risk assessment, there is an average reduction in risk scores of 9% across all AMS. By taking a closer look at each resilience component, each AMS highlighted its strong points on the SDGs for their resilience components. This article recommends that ASEAN explore how sustainable resilience can be shared amongst AMS to enhance regional resilience further. 

Keywords: ASEAN RISK, disaster, resilience, sustainable development

Introduction

In light of the escalating impact of natural hazards, the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) region remains particularly vulnerable to disasters. According to the ASEAN Disasters Information Network (ADINet), 2023 witnessed an average of three daily disasters within the ASEAN region. These events affected approximately 61,000 individuals, displacing 5,000 people on a daily basis (“ADINet,” 2024). Tragically, there were an average of two deaths, one missing person, and three injuries each day during the same period. Comparing these figures to the disaster averages from 2012 to 2022, it becomes evident 1 that disaster occurrences surged significantly in 2023, reaching 2.4 times the 2012–2022 average rate. This heightened frequency underscores the urgent need for proactive measures within the ASEAN community to enhance disaster resilience

ASEAN RISK

ASEAN RISK builds on two of the leading disaster risk assessments: the Joint Research Centre's Index for Risk Management (INFORM) and the Pacific Disaster Center's (PDC) ASEAN Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (RVA). These indices are leveraged to create a composite measure of “multi-hazard exposure,” “vulnerability,” “coping capacity,” and “resilience.” Both INFORM and PDC approach indicator aggregation, scaling, and ranking similarly — the differences are primarily based on indicator selection.

Result and Discussion

Between 2012 and 2023, the ASEAN Disaster Information Network documented over 6.7K disaster events across the ten AMS. These events have significantly impacted more than 235 million individuals, displacing over 26 million people and resulting in 118K casualties (including fatalities, missing persons, and injuries). The economic toll stands at over USD 19 billion in damages. Figure 2.5 illustrates a general upward trend in disaster occurrences within the ASEAN region. However, there was a temporary decline in 2023 due to the onset of El Niño. Notably, hydrometeorological disasters (floods, storms, landslides, winds, and drought) dominate the region's disaster landscape, emphasising the critical role of weather and climate conditions in shaping ASEAN's risk to disasters

Table 2.2 presents the most recent analysis results, which remain consistent with last year’s assessment. Notably, Myanmar, the Philippines, and Indonesia continue to be the AMS facing the highest risk. Myanmar stands out as the most vulnerable AMS, driven by a combination of factors, including having the third-highest “natural hazard exposure,” the highest “vulnerability,” and the lowest “coping capacity.” Ongoing multi-dimensional challenges, including a significant displaced population due to conflict situations, contribute significantly to this vulnerability score. The Philippines and Indonesia follow closely as the second and third highest-risk countries, respectively. Their exposure to natural hazards remains a critical factor. Together, they account for over 80% of the disasters in the ASEAN region (“ADINet,” 2024), with Indonesia at 70.5% and the Philippines at 11.5%. Additionally, the Philippines faces the secondhighest “vulnerability” and the fifth-lowest “coping capacity.”

Change in the ASEAN Riskcape

PDC's AIM 3.0 is a recent update with improved spatial resolutions, resulting in a more accurate assessment of exposures. Hazard zones do not appreciably change over the short term; therefore, this article's ASEAN RISK assessment is aggregated with the “vulnerability” and “coping capacity” scores of previous editions of ARMOR to allow for comparison across time. A slight average increase in “vulnerability” scores from the 1 edition indicates that most AMS have seen increased st “vulnerability” scores. The change in “vulnerability” has decreased when including this year's assessment. This is due to an overall decrease in these scores for this year's assessment. The most significant decreases in “vulnerability” scores were in Cambodia, Myanmar, and the Philippines. In line with the decreases in “vulnerability,” all AMS (except Singapore) saw slight increases in “coping capacity” scores. A small average decrease in “coping capacity” has persisted since the 1 edition. All AMS have seen a decrease in “coping st capacity.” Change in the ASEAN Riskcape PDC's AIM 3.0 is a recent update with improved spatial resolutions, resulting in a more accurate assessment of exposures. Hazard zones do not appreciably change over the short term; therefore, this article's ASEAN RISK assessment is aggregated with the “vulnerability” and “coping capacity” scores of previous editions of ARMOR to allow for comparison across time. A slight average increase in “vulnerability” scores from the 1 edition indicates that most AMS have seen increased st “vulnerability” scores. The change in “vulnerability” has decreased when including this year's assessment. This is due to an overall decrease in these scores for this year's assessment. The most significant decreases in “vulnerability” scores were in Cambodia, Myanmar, and the Philippines. Myanmar saw the largest decrease in “coping capacity” since the 1 edition, followed by Viet Nam and Lao PDR. st Those AMS with the highest “coping capacity” scores have the smallest decrease in “coping capacity” since the 1st edition

Sustainability and Risk

Incorporating SDG Progress scores into the ASEAN RISK assessment provides insight into the efforts to meet the SDGs and how they may intersect with the disaster risk reduction efforts. Overall, there are minor changes in risk when considering SDG Progress. There is an average reduction in risk scores of 9% across all AMS. Singapore and Brunei Darussalam saw the largest reductions in risk scores, followed by Thailand. From this information, we see that AMS with the lowest risk scores benefitted from the consideration of SDG Progress. Amongst the AMS with the highest risk scores (Myanmar, the Philippines, and Indonesia), Indonesia saw the most significant reduction in risk score (approximately 6%), followed by the Philippines (5%) and Myanmar (2%). When compared relatively, only Lao PDR and Thailand changed ranks. This is due to the closeness in SDG Progress scores for all AMS.

Conclusion and Recommendations

Disaster risk assessment is one of the vital foundations for ASEAN to strengthen its disaster resilience. As it starts by understanding the current risk assessments, ASEAN can identify gaps and opportunities to enhance its disaster resilience for sustainable development. This process helps determine proper actions and interventions to minimise risk while increasing overall resilience.

The current ASEAN RISK assessment reveals that ASEAN remains highly vulnerable to disasters due to its geographical location and exposure to natural hazards. Over time, ASEAN has observed an increased disaster risk since the 1 edition of ARMOR; however, since the 3 edition of ARMOR, there has been an improvement in st rd “resilience” related to “vulnerability” and “coping capacity.” Additionally, the AMS' sustainability efforts in achieving the SDGs play a crucial role in reducing disaster risk.

The overall increase in resilience indicates that ASEAN is starting to move in the right direction for sustainable resilience. Despite an annual rise in “multi-hazard exposure,” the growing “resilience” component helps balance or even overcome this exposure, further reducing disaster risk in the ASEAN region. This article recommends that the ASEAN region explore how sustainable resilience can be shared amongst AMS, leveraging their strengths in achieving SDGs to enhance regional resilience.

References

ADINet. (2024). AHA Centre. Retrieved January 31, 2024, from https://adinet.ahacentre.org/

ASEAN. (2023, September 5). ASEAN Leaders’ Declaration on Sustainable Resilience. https://asean.org/asean-leadersdeclaration-on-sustainable-resilience/

ASEANstats. (2022). The 2022 ASEAN SDG Snapshot Report. https://www.aseanstats.org/publication/the-2022-asean-sdgsnapshot-report/

Dimailig, L. A., Landicho, K. P., Green, J., & Morath, D. (2020). The threat-multiplier: Climate change and disaster riskscape in ASEAN. In the AHA Centre, ASEAN risk monitor and disaster management review (ARMOR) 2 edition (pp. 25–58). Jakarta: nd ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (AHA Centre). https://ahacentre.org/publication/armor/

Dimailig, L. A., Green, J., Keith, P. L., Sadhu, Z. J., Eric, H., Mohammad, F. & Adam. G. (2022). Disaster and pandemic: The exacerbating effects of COVID-19 on ASEAN’s disaster riskscape, in the AHA Centre. ASEAN risk monitor and disaster management review (ARMOR) 3 edition (pp. 1–28). Jakarta: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on rd Disaster Management (AHA Centre). https://ahacentre.org/publication/armor/

Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. (2023, March 1). Asia and the pacific SDG progress report 2023: Championing sustainability despite adversities. United Nations. https://www.unescap.org/kp/2023/asia-and-pacific-sdgprogress-report-2023

Office of Assistant to Deputy Cabinet Secretary for State Documents & Translation. (2022, May 25). President Jokowi Offers Four Concepts of Sustainable Disaster Resilience. Cabinet Secretariat of the Republic of Indonesia. https://setkab.go.id/en/president-jokowi-offers-four-concepts-of-sustainable-disaster-resilience/

Pacific Disaster Center Global. (2023). AIM 3.0 All Hazard Impact Model. https://www.pdc.org/impact-modeling/

Pang, Q. & Dimailig, L. A. (2019). Trillion dollar multi-hazard risk landscape in Southeast Asia, in the AHA Centre, ASEAN risk monitor and disaster management review (ARMOR) 1 edition, (pp. 1–23). Jakarta: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for st Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (AHA Centre). https://ahacentre.org/publication/armor/

Sachs, J.D., Lafortune, G., Fuller, G., & Drumm, E. (2023). Implementing the SDG Stimulus. Sustainable Development Report 2023. Dublin University Press. 10.25546/102924

Sustainable Development Report. (n.d.). Country Profiles. Retrieved January 31, 2024, from https://dashboards.sdgindex.org/profiles/